Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in academia but hardly any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate even with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two pieces that aim for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will succeed here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got important lessons to gain from the alternative arguments."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
