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Just two months prior when Morgan Rogers stood on the Sunderland turf, seeming perplexed while the Villa manager berated him over missing a pass in behind. During that period, as the club failed to win in six, the question was whether his displays were a sign or the reason for the side's more general malaise.

“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”

In the latest match, in contrast, the touchline reaction was far more favourable. When Rogers curled home his second strike to restore the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician ripped off his coat, opened his arms and bellowed. The team continued to a 10th successive win and having failed to win any of their first six matches, now sit a mere three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.

Are They Serious Challengers?

It remains an exceptionally difficult query to resolve. Past precedent, the perceived status of the club, suggests not. Additionally, their performances haven't been wholly dominant during this run, while the victories have accumulated.

Per Opta, in only two games has the team registered an xG more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a team that have just won a ten-match winning streak, Villa appear weirdly vulnerable – but right now the tight outcomes are falling their way.

The Winning Formula

The prevailing tactic looks like to exchange chances with the opposition before hoping their star man to rescue them with a couple of crisp finishes. This occurred against Leeds, it happened against West Ham, and again against the Red Devils.

His opener originated from an exquisite effort, bent right inside the goal frame from a wide position. His brace-completing goal was essentially a somewhat messier replica of the opener capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.

“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”

Is It Sustainable?

Reason suggests otherwise. In the recent win, Manchester United registered more efforts and more shots on target. Villa have triumphed in eight consecutive games by a single goal. The defence has been breached in all except one of those fixtures.

Regression to the mean may well be the most significant challenge Villa will encounter over the coming weeks. The forward, surely, will not continue to drilling his shots into the top corner forever.

Reasons for Optimism

Perhaps there is a different scenario where, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players may yet find their top level.

• Ollie Watkins could start scoring again.
• The winger may rediscover the force he resembled during his peak.
• The injured centre-backs are due to regain fitness, bolstering a sometimes shaky defensive unit.

Perhaps there is in that the potential of a title challenge, but they surely cannot keep relying on Morgan Rogers.

Enjoying the Ride

However, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would be in a Champions League place in December. And most definitely two months ago, few could imagine Rogers now would be leading a hunt for the title while establishing himself as an essential England player.

The current run must be cherished for the very reason that it appears so improbable. As the hero stood in front of the Villa faithful when the game ended orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. As he deserves to. Such periods do not happen often and ought to be celebrated.